The Trump Gala Shooting Fallout is Pathetic
PDS Published 04/27/2026
-
Donald Trump streak of being targeted by the dumbest half baked amateur assassins continued this weekend at the white House Correspondents Dinner, with this time, the shooter not even getting anywhere close to the president. understandably, everyone in the room still ran and hid. Except this guy who just wasn't going to let anyone fuck with his dinner.
But looking at the video that Trump released, it looked like the would be assassin was using the run as far as he can into the Scientology building TikTok strategy, which then got him arrested. Face down, ass up ASAP.
but then or maybe because of that, almost immediately before we really knew much anything about what happened, the conspiracy theories were rolling in, Right. Literally hundreds of thousands of posts on social media debated whether or not the attack was a false flag, whether it was staged by the Trump administration for some reason or another. some theorizing that maybe it was to boost his poll numbers, or maybe to distract from the Iran war. Maybe, perhaps the most popular theory to justify building the white House ballroom. though that last one, it was connected to Trump himself. An army of right wing influencers. And John Fetterman, who might as well be one at this point, taking the opportunity to argue that the Democrats need to back that ballroom now. it's drone proof. It's bulletproof glass. We need the ballroom. That's why Secret service. That's why the military are demanding it.
then also, you know, a lot of people jumping on these clips that make it seem like some folks like they knew that the shooting was going to happen in advance. like this one where a Fox News reporter got cut off, right as she was describing a conversation she had before the shooting with white House press secretary Caroline Leavitt's husband. he kind of leaned over and said, you know, I watch you on TV, you do a great job. You need to be very safe. And he was a very serious when he said that to me. And he kind of looked around the room and he said, you know, there are some. with that, she later explained that her call got dropped because the room had notoriously bad reception. And she added. finish the story. He was telling me to be careful with my own safety because the world is crazy.
that you also had plenty of people jumping on this comment that Caroline Leavitt herself made earlier that night. There will be some shots fired tonight it's pretty clear from the, the full context there that she's talking about Trump taking metaphorical shots at the press during his speech. though interestingly, someone that was not on board the false flag narrative was Alex Jones. and he's someone who still thinks there was a second shooter at the Butler rally, and he thinks that the false flag narrative is bullshit. no. You had too many of the D.C. police Secret Service, all of them involved. The very small percentage of those guys are corrupt. Something like that. Right out in the open. A registered Democrat, Trump Derangement Syndrome, 30 year old teacher.
with all that said, as far as the guy who got arrested, we know that his name is Cole Thomas Allen. And yes, he's alive. Despite official rumors that he got killed. also have been charged with using a firearm during a crime of violence and with assaulting a federal officer using a dangerous weapon. Though I will say additional charges are expected. as far as what we've learned from people who know him, they've described him as a smart, kind, seemingly normal guy, and many were shocked to learn that he did this. we also know that he's 31 years old. He lived in Torrance, California, went to Caltech for engineering, and he just finished his master's in computer science. even developed his own video games and was a part time tutor for high school kids.
as far as his motive, Alex Jones does appear to be right, at least in one regard. Right. He does appear to be, if not a Democrat, at the very least, anti-Trump. You've got federal records showing that he donated 25 bucks to the fundraising platform Actblue for Kamala Harris. also according to a white House official, Allen sister told authorities that he attended no King's protest in California and belonged to a social justice activist group called the Wide Awakes. she also reportedly said that he had a tendency to make radical statements in his rhetoric, constantly referenced, plan to, quote, do something to fix the issues with today's world.
which is pretty consistent with a manifesto that Allen supposedly sent to a family member about ten minutes before the shooting sign call, called for his friendly federal assassin, Allen. then it apologizes to his parents, his students and colleagues, hotel staff and bystanders and, in his words, all those who suffered before I was able to attempt this, and all who may still suffer after, regardless of my success or failure. with him, then making it clear that his targets were administration officials, though strangely, he excluded FBI Director Kash Patel.
as far as why he said he did as he explained, am a citizen of the United States of America. What my representatives do reflects on me, and I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes.
which then led us to the next thing we have to talk about, which is the sit down interview with 60 minutes, Because Norah O'Donnell, she read that quote to Trump, and this was his reaction. What's your reaction? Well, I was waiting for you to read that because I knew you would. Because you're you're you're horrible people. Horrible people. not a rapist. I mean, rape anybody. Oh, you. I think he was referring to. Excuse me? I'm not a pedophile. You read that crap from some sick person you should be ashamed of yourself reading that, because I'm not any of those things, Mr. President. I was never existing. Excuse me. You shouldn't be reading that in 60 minutes. You're a disgrace. But go ahead, let's finish the interview.
with many people after that saying the Trump saying I'm not a pedophile is kind of his Nixon I'm not a crook moment. but one. We'll see you there. And two. Continuing with manifesto, Allen expressed a remarkable amount of concern for people that he considers to be relatively innocent. we're saying that he'd only shoot Secret Service hotel security, Capitol Police and National Guard if necessary, and nonlethal if possible. then adding in order to minimize casualties, I will also be using buckshot rather than slugs. Less penetration through walls. then also despite all that, he admitted would still go through most everyone here to get to the targets if it were absolutely necessary. On the basis that most people chose to attend a speech by a pedophile, rapist and traitor and are thus complicit. But I really hope it doesn't come to that. so, yeah, if you take the manifesto at face value, the motive appears to be pretty straightforward.
also you're seeing Trump in a host of white House officials pushing other narratives, one including that Allen was actually motivated by a hatred for Christians. he's radicalized. He was a Christian, a believer, and then he became an anti-Christian. now is where where that idea came from. It's a little unclear, but Allen does make a few references to religion in his manifesto. first, the address is the hypothetical objection to his attack, that quote, as a Christian, you should turn the other cheek, them replying that turning the other cheek is for when you yourself are oppressed, saying I'm not the person raped in a detention camp. I'm not the fisherman executed without trial. I'm not a school kid blown up, or a child starved, or a teenage girl abused by the many criminals in this administration. turning the other cheek when someone else is oppressed is not Christian behavior. It is complicity in the oppressors crimes.
then it appears he addresses the objection that he should quote, yield unto Caesar what is Caesar's, which is the biblical quote that's often cited to justify his submission to political authority, replying. The United States of America are ruled by the law, not by any one or several people saying, insofar as representatives and judges do not follow the law, no one is required to yield them anything so unlawfully ordered. then on top of all that, there's what appears to be Allen's Blue Sky account, where he appears to identify as a Protestant and repeatedly compares Trump to the Antichrist. Or with him quoting a Bible verse in response to Trump's I picture of himself as Jesus writing, They will be tormented with burning sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and of the lamb the smoke of their torment will rise for ever and ever. There will be no rest day or night for those who worship the beast and its image, or for anyone who receives the mark of its name. you have many saying, it seems like he's the opposite of being anti-Christian. It seems like Allen was actually pretty devout. you also have others who know him backing it up, saying that he attended church regularly. And he was active in the Caltech Christian Fellowship.
but then also regardless and in addition to that, you had Republicans blaming Saturday's attack on what they claim is dangerous rhetoric from Democrats in the left. More broadly. just not in that same line of argument that we saw to the Butler shooting in the Kirk assassination. people are arguing that by calling Trump a fascist, a threat to democracy and a bunch of other harsh names are calling out what he's doing with Iran or anything else. Critics have stoked the flames of political violence. and so you're saying Republicans are now taking the opportunity to smear Democrats running for office in Michigan, Maine and North Carolina ahead of the midterms? even had CNN's Dana Bash throwing this argument at Representative Jamie Raskin, which a lot of people slammed her for. as many of your fellow Democrats have used some heated rhetoric against the president. And do you think twice about that when something like this happens? What rhetoric do you have in just talking about some of the the fact that he, you know, is terrible for this country and so on and so forth. I understand that that's your democratic right. But overall. Yeah. Do you have a personal problem with Donald Trump at all?
I mean, I talk about the policies of this administration, that in this part is just my opinion. I think I have one word for bash there, and that is clown. a stupid question. Or even a stupid question to frame in that way, even after you yourself noted that Trump calls the press the enemy of the people. idea that elected Democrats are somehow like raising the temperature when they're saying like, hey, I think, I think when we bombed a school and killed a bunch of kids, that was a bad thing, that that's raising the temperature. they when Democrats criticize Trump for sending troops into cities and all of a sudden Americans got killed in broad daylight, that that is somehow bad. And raising the temperature. one the false equivalency bullshit. and the thing you'll often see is like, yeah, Trump says this, but what about this random internet person? know how the elected president of the United States, the representative for an entire country, or is supposed to be in an entire party, is equal to a random TikToker. and also in their defense, like the Democrats have broadly condemned political violence after every single one of these high profile attacks, including this one.
this is a man who has tweeted giddily when people who were critics of him have died. This is a man who is threatened. Capital punishment against elected representatives. I will say, fuck anyone that's a part of the media that is sane, watching and just playing into the false equivalency bullshit right now. that doesn't make you a better journalist. It makes you a fucking hack. I'll leave that there for now. So I don't say anything I regret.
but in the meantime, also got people on both the left and right arguing about how hotel security allowed this attack to even happen at all. Because there's been a ton of mixed reporting about whether or not proper measures were in place or if security was too lax. line with that report and noted that there were multiple layers of protection at the event, and the suspect was able to get past the outermost layer because he was staying at the Hilton, which was closed off to the public starting at 2 p.m. but still accessible to guests. But then from there, security gets tighter with people having to show tickets and go through other checks to get to the area where the dinner was held.
so with all that, you had Acting Attorney General Todd Bland telling NBC. Let's not forget that this the suspect didn't get very far. He barely broke the perimeter. And by barely, I mean by a few feet. And so while this was an extraordinarily dangerous and put a lot of lives at risk, and there's no doubt that that that's something that we're going to have to learn from over the next couple of weeks. The system worked. We were safe. President Trump was safe. His Secret Service agents, kept him safe.
also had a former Secret Service detail telling the New York Times, This could have been a massacre. wasn't because armed, trained professionals stood between the attacker and a ballroom full of people. question is not how did he get close? question people should be asking is, why is everyone alive? because the security plan worked.
but then also with that, even the suspect himself was reportedly shocked at what he was able to get away with with the times obtaining writings where he was surprised that he was able to check into the hotel a day before with guns and a knife, presumably in his luggage. he also argued that a terrorist with more dangerous weapons would have been able to do much, much worse. so some reports have questioned the security thinking. Yeah, he was stopped, but it is very much worth asking. How did he even get that close?
with, for example, the Washington Post noting that the dinner wasn't granted the highest security level, called a national special security event. while the dinner doesn't usually get that level of security because so many government officials attend, many think that it should. as far as more specific, according to the post, Secret Service were charged with protecting the ballroom and its perimeter while DC police were handling road closures and traffic outside. But. saying in between, there was no clear responsibility for the security of the thousands of guests and the rest of the Hilton property. with that, you would speaker Mike Johnson adding, I can tell you from elements perspective, it it did look a little lax in terms of, as everyone's now noted, getting into the building now, we all came in cabinet secretaries of government officials with their own details. We come in the back. So I didn't see the magnetometers and all that, but it doesn't sound like it was sufficient.
ultimately, that is where we are right now. It's going to be interesting to see what other information comes out. Do we see more significant fallout? of course, in the meantime, I would really love to know your thoughts, opinions, and your reactions to all this in the comments down below.
-
I would absolutely love to see you in person. And now my Crashing Out tour is on sale 12 dates, 12 cities. And you can get your tickets right now at Crashing Out tour.com. going to be a great time. We can crash out together. It's gonna be very cathartic. I'm so excited.
then two. A quick word from today's fantastic sponsor. Because, you know, listen. Many times the hardest part of launching something new, it is getting out of your own way. We've all had that one passion project or business idea that keeps coming back to us for a while. maybe we've even told a few people about it. the website still not built. But today that changes because Squarespace, they just ran out of excuses for you. not be easier whether you just showcasing things or you want to start selling content courses, physical or digital products, whatever you've been dreaming up, their beacon automation tools will literally draft your site, copy, suggest your layout and design your pages. just describe what you want. It builds around you. No coding, no guesswork, just results.
whether you want to just showcase things or you need one time payment subscriptions, it's all easy. Done. Beacon can help you design and build the business. And acuity handles the bookings. So by the time that your first client finds him, everything's already ready for them. once you live there, built in analytics and marketing tools, they keep everything running like clockwork so you can focus on what you actually care about. so pause the procrastination. You're free trials waiting for you at squarespace.com email or hey scan that QR code. Today is a launch day. just remember that when it's ready to go live, use code fill to get 10% off and let him know we sent you.
-
but then I right back into it. The U.S. and Iran still haven't met for talks, drums, debating whether or not to just end the cease fire and get back to the bombing. And in Lebanon, the violence is continuing despite the cease fire, with Israel getting extended another three weeks.
and so there's a lot to break down here. But let's start with the US and Iran because like we talked about last week, Trump extended the cease fire indefinitely. that was his talks were expected to take place in Islamabad over the weekend. But then Ron wouldn't confirm that they would participate. And then you had Trump announcing that his negotiating team would no longer be making the trip. writing on social media. Too much time wasted traveling, too much work Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their leadership. nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards. They have none. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call.
so with that one. it is a little bit amusing that he's complaining that there's a lot of infighting, confusion over who's leading them when he is the reason. Well, he and the Israelis are the reason that's the case. They just keep killing the leadership. then two. You had Trump later telling reporters within ten minutes of canceling the trip that he had gotten a much better proposal from Iran than one received previously, saying they offered a lot, but not enough. and while he wouldn't elaborate there he did reiterate that one of his conditions for ending the war is that Iran, quote, will not have a nuclear weapon.
he may have mentioned that specifically because according to later reporting by Axios, this was basically the one issue the Iranian proposal failed to address. with that proposal instead calling for an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, including with an end to the US blockade, while also suggesting nuclear talks be held separately and at a later date.
so Trump's apparent rejection to this offer. It really wasn't surprising, since agreeing would basically mean giving up his only leverage in the talks, right? The blockade while also leaving Iran with its uranium stockpile. and again. This is a stockpile that in some ways only exists because of Donald Trump, but a stockpile that might be even bigger than we think.
you see, because the 2015 nuclear deal that was negotiated under Obama would have expired after 15 years, enabling Iran to enrich uranium to bomb grade if it wanted to. From 2030 onward. but release 15 of those years. If Trump didn't pull us out of that deal, Iran would have been unable to build a weapon largely because they actually lived up to their promise to ship 12.5 tons of uranium, or around 97% of its stockpile out of the country, leaving it with two little nuclear fuel to really do. So, even if it wanted.
now, when you fast forward to today, there's believed to be almost 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium in the country. actually according to international inspectors, there may be as much as 11 tons of uranium overall. which with enrichment would be enough to build a hundred nuclear weapons, which is more than the estimated size of Israel's arsenal. and virtually all of this material accumulated in the years after Trump abandoned the Obama deal.
that's as this war in the U.S. and Israeli strikes last June, they haven't fundamentally changed the situation in terms of Iran's enrichment capabilities. got one expert who advise the Obama White House on Iran's nuclear program, telling the New York Times, yes, a lot of their top scientists have been killed, but they still have the basic industrial capacity to produce nuclear weapons. If they decide to do that.
and that's especially true because even though the U.S. and Israel did significant damage to several Iranian nuclear facilities back in June, there's another enrichment facility whose status and location is unknown. and those strikes actually led to the cancellation of a meeting in which Iran was meant to officially declare the existence of that site. something that would reportedly be comparable in size to a grocery store and could be hidden almost anywhere underground in the country's vast mountains.
and so with all this, you had Trump meeting with top national security officials today to discuss their options, including how and whether to respond to the latest Iranian proposal and whether to resume the U.S. bombing campaign in the country. of course, the other option is maintaining the status quo and seeing who can deal with the economic pressure the longest.
and actually with that, the US blockade does really appear to be taking a toll on Iran's already weak economy. even the nation's most well-known economic newspaper predicting that the annual inflation could rise to 49% in a best case scenario. and you've got the Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran storing oil on floating tankers to avoid shutting down some of its production and resorting to other desperate methods to save space, including trying to send oil to China by train.
but also, at the same time, the regime there really doesn't appear all that concerned with the suffering of their people. And some economists think that they could last for another 3 to 6 months. you at that at one London based research organization, telling the New York Times that Iran's leaders, they still believe it can wait Trump out and that disruptions in the strait are more costly for Trump than for them.
and at least as of right now, Iran seemingly standing their ground with the country's foreign minister reportedly telling mediators in Pakistan over the weekend that Iran demanded the lifting of the U.S. blockade as a precondition for talks. this is while at least publicly refusing to meet with the U.S. he's been engaging in diplomacy with a number of other countries. he also reportedly spoke by phone with his counterparts in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. And he traveled to Oman, which is the country on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. he's reportedly trying to convince the government there to support some sort of mechanism to jointly collect tolls from vessels that pass through the strait.
well, it's not clear that Oman's on board right now. In the meantime, you also have the Iranian foreign minister making his way to Russia today to meet with Vladimir Putin. of course, that ends up being extra notable because Russia has been accused of actively helping Iran.
for now, while we wait to see what happens, you have a lot of people wonder, you know what happens if the fighting continues, which then, speaking of continued fighting, we then have to talk about Israel and Lebanon. Right. Because a ceasefire between those two countries, it took effect on April 16th. And last week, it was extended by three weeks. they you also had Israel retaining what it's described as the right to take all necessary measures in self-defense at any time against planned, imminent or ongoing attacks.
it's the seemingly with that, on Saturday, you had Netanyahu ordering the Israeli military to vigorously attack Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing at least six people. then yesterday, you had IDF spokesperson issuing evacuation orders for several villages in southern Lebanon, writing that residents must evacuate immediately or they would be endangering their life.
the IDF later announcing that it had carried out artillery and aerial strikes that it claimed targeted Hezbollah operatives and sites used to advance attacks against IDF soldiers. then also reporting that a Hezbollah drone attack against Israeli troops inside of Lebanon had killed one soldier and injured six, while other Hezbollah attacks unsuccessfully targeted Israeli territory.
then also on the other side, you had Lebanon's health ministry reporting that Israeli strikes had killed 14 people, including two children and two women, and injured 37. again, you had Netanyahu arguing that this is just self-defense, saying are acting vigorously in accordance with arrangements agreed with the United States, and incidentally, also with Lebanon. saying this means freedom of action not only to respond to attacks, which is obvious, but also to preempt immediate threats and even emerging threats.
notably with that not everyone in Israel agrees with Netanyahu. you actually now have two opposition parties joining forces to try to take them down in the next election in October, with the leader or one of those parties saying at a press conference, we are standing here together for the sake of our children. saying the state of Israel must change direction. although to be very clear like that different direction, it might not be that different, at least when it comes to foreign policy and Israel's wars. one of these parties is described as more centrist, and actually one is more right wing. But they have both criticized Netanyahu for not securing decisive enough victories against Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
ultimately it's going to be a semi long road, right? We still have six months until that election.
Do that “someday” project today with a FREE trial at Squarespace Simple site builder, no coding, killer templates...10% off with code PHIL.
-
we've got to dive back into domestic news because a federal judge said that the DOJ produced essentially zero evidence of any crime by Jerome Powell and a mountain of evidence that the entire investigation was just a tool to pressure him to resign or cut interest rates. then the judge blocking it, the DOJ ignoring him, a Republican senator finally forcing them to back down. And now Trump's hand-picked replacement could be confirmed within weeks.
right. We need to walk through this because it was a totally avoidable mess. And I think it also shows you where we are right now. Right. So this whole situation centered around Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, the same Jerome Powell who Trump himself appointed during his first term, and Powell's term as fed chair. It expires May 15th though notably you can stay on as a governor of the fed board.
But for months Trump has been throwing a tantrum because Powell has refused to lower interest rates to the levels that Trump wants. and so Trump so repeatedly demanded that Powell resign before his term's up and even threatened to fire him if he doesn't.
there are two important things here. First, Powell is literally just doing his job. Congress designed the Federal Reserve specifically to be insulated from political pressure because the alternative is presidents just juicing the economy for short term political wins at the cost of long term stability. literally every time in history someone's tried that and ended an inflation recession or both.
and second, it's not even clear that Trump actually has the power to fire Powell Federal only allows the president to remove a fed chair for serious offenses, not policy disputes.
and so then when the threats didn't work, Trump's DOJ launched a criminal investigation into Powell, and the pretext was a $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed's headquarters that's gone over budget plus testimony that Powell gave to Congress about the project last year. I don't know if you remember it, but basically nobody bought it. people that had eyes on this. They said this was obviously a pressure campaign to either force people to resign or get them to bend on interest rates.
the federal judge agreed. Right. The judge ruled that the DOJ had produced essentially zero evidence that Powell committed any crime in a mountain of evidence that the agency was using its subpoenas to pressure Powell to resign or to cut rates. the judge concluding that it was an abuse of power and blocking the DOJ from serving subpoenas to the fed.
and that should have ended it. But it didn't. Trump just kept pushing and pushing like he does. And it might have actually worked. Except for one Republican senator who decided that it was just enough was enough. Senate Majority Leader Thom Tillis took a very rare public stand against Trump. He flat out refused to allow the confirmation of Trump's nominee to replace Powell, Kevin Warsh, until the DOJ dropped what Tillis called the bogus probe.
so that was a leverage point right. Trump has the votes to confirm Warsh barely. And he needs Warsh confirmed before Powell's term expires on May 15th. without Warsh. Trump's plan just collapses. So Tillis no vote. It was effectively a hold on the entire thing.
and so what you saw is that on Friday, the DOJ finally gave. Jeanine Pirro, Trump's prosecutor for the district of Columbia, announced that she was ending the investigation. though I will note, she added a caveat, saying I will not hesitate to restart a criminal investigation should the facts warrant doing so. she then also ask the feds inspector general to review the cost overruns, which is interesting because the feds IG was already investigating it at the house direction. and also a previous review back in 2021 already found no evidence of wrongdoing.
Pirro essentially announced that she was closing an investigation while pointing to another investigation that already happened and found nothing, and reserving the right to come back later.
more importantly for this story, yesterday, you had Tillis announcing that he would now allow the confirmation process for Warsh to proceed. we worked a lot over the weekend to make sure that we were very clear, that we had the assurances from the DOJ that I needed to feel like they were not using the DOJ as a weapon to threaten the independence of the fed. So this will allow Mr. Warsh to move on with his confirmation on time.
Tillis also adding that he received specific assurances that the investigation would only restart if the feds inspector general found serious wrongdoing and made a criminal referral. which it is a meaningful guardrail, assuming that the DOJ honors.
so as far as next steps you have, the Senate Bank Committee is scheduling a vote on Warsh for this Wednesday. But he just needs to clear committee before his nomination can move to the full Senate floor. And the entire goal is to get him confirmed before Powell's term expires May 15th.
but again, we then have to tie in with our previous coverage. In case you forgot, Warsh appears to have a $100 million plus net worth that he will not fully disclose. There are real questions about his independence. Given that Trump has openly said that Warsh will deliver lower interest rates and Senator Elizabeth Warren called him Trump's sock puppet on the Senate floor.
so, regardless of whatever happens with Powell, understand this whole situation with Warsh. It is a stress test for whether the Federal Reserve's independence survives the next Trump term.
-
hey, time will tell. and then there's even more that we've got to dive into in just a minute. But first, let me sponsor myself and say our new beautiful bastard signature tees. They're now live. in fantastic solid in amazing tie dyes. it is your perfect new, lighter, softer hot day tee. they're made with your spring and summer in mind.
with these being new. We just started getting reviews coming in, from Jenny. You said truthfully, I was shocked at how soft it was saying we did the detergent commercial. Honey, come feel this. What is that? Feel different. Go as a new shirt. Liz. And great fabric. Great price. Love the color. my favorite might be Kelsey, who said as a human polar bear, this is my new favorite hot day tee.
Snag yourself your new favorite tee over beautiful bastard.com.
-
but then diving right back into the news, Ron DeSantis just dropped a brand new Florida congressional map at the last minute, and he could rush it through before Democrats can even challenge it. this map leaves Democrats with four congressional districts, while Republicans get 24. And that gives Florida Republicans four more districts than they have right now. if it works, it could save the Republican House majority. But if it backfires, Florida Republicans could lose seats they've held for years.
with DeSantis's team drawing these maps behind closed doors. Right. There is a specific legal strategy behind this timing. there's let's say two doctrines at play here. The first is something called the Purcell principle, a legal idea that keeps courts from overturning election laws too close to an election, because doing so would confuse voters. so if DeSantis can get the maps passed and then run out the clock, the courts might decide they're just not intervening at all before the midterms.
and then second is the apex doctrine, which says that if Democrats challenge the maps, they have to depose all the lower level staffers in DeSantis's camp before they can touch the people actually calling the shots.
you've got some analysts saying that's exactly how DeSantis helped flip the House back in 2022. and remember because these maps have been drawn in secret, Democrats won't even know who to depose or what documents to request. so the strategy here is clear. Run out the clock and take the house by default.
but again this strategy, it comes with real risk for Republicans. when you redraw a state's map to break up Democratic districts, you're spreading those voters across more districts. it can create more competitive seats, but it can also weaken the safe Republican ones, because now those previously safe districts, they have more Democratic voters in them.
and then of course, the wildcard here is the independents. across the country, at least right now, independents are increasingly leaning left. So if DeSantis spreads too many Democrats and left leaning independents into Republican held districts, he could end up handing Democrats opportunities they didn't previously have.
this isn't like some theory. Trump's approval is already cratering under the weight of the Iran war and rising gas prices. Republicans say privately that this could backfire. with one Republican strategist putting it pretty bluntly, saying in an environment like this where independents are breaking hard against us, our people aren't showing up and Democrats are pissed, we could wind up losing a net number of seats.
but also here's the thing. Even if Florida backfires, Democrats still have to actually win these races. and right now, it doesn't seem like they can even agree on what to talk about.
because there are basically three competing messaging lanes inside of the Democratic Party heading into the midterms.
lane one, the economy, clearest and most evidence backed approach. Polls show only 29% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy. People are feeling it everywhere. Gas, groceries, insurance, housing.
lane two impeachment. Some Democrats want to talk openly about impeaching Trump. Again if they win the House.
and then lane three, the 25th amendment. this isn't Representative Jamie Raskin push. And it's actually picked up some real momentum. 40% of House Democrats have signed on.
but the bigger problem is that the 25th amendment requires the vice president and the cabinet to lead the charge. JD Vance and Trump's cabinet are not going to do that.
so with all that, my opinion. the choice is clear. first and foremost, it has to be about what you can actually offer and do for the American people. voters are asking about groceries, rent, college, retirement, and the cost of this war.
they have to stand for something not just against something. the Democrats for their own well-being, they better all get on the same page because they have a historic opportunity.