Trump PANICS Over Joe Rogan, Savannah Guthrie Mom Abduction Updates, & The Kalshi Polymarket Problem
PDS Published 02/05/2026
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This war in Minnesota looks far from over, but the city’s residents just landed a heavy blow to Trump’s storm troopers.
Because yesterday, they waved goodbye to a whole lot of federal agents.
[Clip, 03:49 - 03:55] Caption: “I have announced, effective immediately, we will draw down 700 people, effective today.”
That’s Trump’s border csar, Tom Homan, and as for the reason he’s pulling out some of his thugs, I’ll let the man who gave him the order explain.
[Clip, 01:30 - 01:44, 02:04 - 02:12] Caption: [Tom Llamas:] “Did that come from you?” [Donald Trump:] “Yes it did. But it didn’t come from me because I just wanted to do it. We are waiting for them to release prisoners, give us the murderers that they’re holding, all of the bad people. … But we’ve gotten a lot of them out, so crime now in Minnesota, crime now in Minneapolis, is down. Crime in all cities is down.”
Now while that is true — crime is down nationwide — it didn’t just start plummeting everywhere Trump sent his secret police.
Right, actually, crime’s been going down for several years now, and in Minneapolis in particular, the record is kind of mixed. [Headline]
Right, certain stuff like homicide, burglary, breaking and entering, and destruction of property have declined from last year, but other violent crimes like assault offenses, sex offenses and motor vehicle theft have gone up. [Quote, find “sex offenses”]
Plus there’s many ways the federal surge has impeded regular law enforcement, by causing civil unrest, overloading 911 dispatchers and clogging up the federal courts and jails.
Hell, even the Minnesota fraud case that kicked this whole shitstorm off has been thrown into disarray by Trump’s chaos regime.
Because CBS reports that the four prosecutors who were leading it won’t be in court at the next trial because they've all left the U.S. Attorney's Office in Minnesota. [Quote, find “spearheaded”]
With sources citing a number of reasons for their departure including caseload management, structural issues within the office, the Trump administration's influence on the office, and concerns related to Operation Metro Surge. [Quote same link, find “caseload”]
So whereas the office had 70 assistant U.S. attorneys under Biden, now under Trump it’s only got as few as 17. [Quote same link, find “17”]
So Trump’s DoJ has tried to fill the ranks with prosecutors from neighboring districts, even from Michigan, as well as from DHS and the military, but even some of those people aren’t happy with their new assignments.
Hence, the lawyer who told a judge on Tuesday “This job sucks” and asked to be held in contempt so she could get some sleep.
But the facts be damned, Trump has declared victory in Minnesota, just like he declared victory in D.C.
And just like the national guard are still in the Capitol, some 2,300 federal agents will remain in the Minneapolis area after these 700 leave, compared to a measly 80 who were there before December. [Quote, find “80”]
Also, when NBC’s Tom Yah-mus (yah like blah) asked Trump what he’s learned from Minneapolis, his answer was ambiguous. [Lead B roll into clip]
[Clip, 02:33 - 02:41] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “Maybe we can use a little bit of a softer touch, but you still have to be tough. These are criminals. We’re dealing with really hard criminals.”
But he did seem to suggest that going forward, if mayors or governors don’t want his goons in their state, he won’t send ‘em there.
[Clip, 06:05 - 06:08, 06:12 - 06:17, 06:46 - 06:54] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “I say, they have to ask, and they have to say please. … I don’t want to go enforce ourselves into a city even if their numbers are terrible.” … [Tom Llamas:] “Which cities are you headed to next?” [Donald Trump:] “We have five cities that we’re looking at very strongly, but we want to be invited.”
Now of course, with Trump, his word is worth about as much as the pumpkin-colored makeup on his skin, but this shift in tone matches some other reporting we’ve seen, most notably about what may be a rift between him and Stephen Miller.
Right, because White House officials tell The Wall Street Journal that he’s been an “architect in almost every boundary-pushing effort in Trump’s second term.” [Quote and Image]
The boat strikes in the Caribbean? Miller. [Quote same link, find “boat strikes”]
The enlistment of the FBI in immigration enforcement? Miller. [Quote same link, find “FBI”]
Having the State Department pressure other countries to accept migrants? Miller. [Quote same link, find “take back”]
The whole policy of going into Democratic cities and indiscriminately rounding up people regardless of their criminal records? [Quote same link, find “marked the start”]
The target of 3,000 arrests per day? The 50,000 dollar bonuses for new recruits? The raids at day laborer spots like Home Depot? Miller, Miller, Miller. [Quote same link, find “3,000” and “50,000” and “Home Depot”]
I mean, according to the Journal he personally drafted or edited every executive order the president signed. [Quote same link, find “drafted”]
Right, he pushed to invoke the Alien Enemies Act to deport people to El Salvador; he pushed to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minneapolis.
Then, sources claim he was the one who started the whole “Renee Good is a domestic terrorist assassin” narrative, though he blames Border Patrol for feeding him bad info. [Quote same link, find “domestic terrorist”]
And after the shooting, as senior officials debated whether to even continue the crackdown in Minneapolis, Miller was right there, reportedly arguing that Trump should deploy more agents, not less. [Quote same link, find “more officers”]
Now y’all, I’m not saying Trump’s deeply emotionally bothered by the response to Good or Pretti’s murders; in fact, this is what he said to Yah-mus about them.
[Clip, 03:47 - 03:51, 03:55 - 04:03, 04:07 - 04:11, 04:48 - 04:58, 05:08 - 05:11] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “Well look, I’m not happy with the two incidents. … He was not an angel, and she was not an angel. You know, you look at some tapes from back, but still, I’m not happy with what happened there. … But I’m gonna always be with our great people of law enforcement.” [Tom Llamas:] “You mentioned Renee Good and Alex Pretti not being angels. Do you think any of that justified what happened to them though?” [Donald Trump:] “No, I don’t. It should have not happened. … You know who feels worse about it than anybody? The people of ICE.”
But if we believe the Journal’s sources, Trump is aware of how bad the shootings looked, and he is aware of the polls. [Quote, find “aware”]
So they say he’s told advisers he wasn’t comfortable with how far Miller has gone on some fronts, and that business officials are calling and complaining to him about longtime workers being thrown out of the country. [Same quote and Image]
Plus we’ve seen a few high-profile man-o-sphere bros wincing at the optics of these immigration policies, including most recently Andrew Schultz, though the one Yah-mus asked Trump about was Joe Rogan.
[Clip, 00:03 - 00:16; Clip, 12:02 - 12:13, 12:18 - 12:21, 12:28 - 12:31] Caption: [Joe Rogan:] “You don’t want militarized people in the streets just roaming around snatching people up, many of which turn out to actually be U.S. citizens that just don’t have their papers on them? Are we really gonna be the Gestapo? Where’s your papers?” … [Tom Llamas:] “What’s your response to him?” [Donald Trump:] “Well look, first of all, he’s a great guy. We had a tremendous success before the election. I think it was his biggest interview ever, over 300 million people. It was very good. … I spoke to him three days ago. We had a great conversation. … Just had a good conversation. I think he’s a great guy and I think he likes me too.”
But whether Don and Joe are still buddy buddy, the polls do not look good for President Trump.
Right, a new Marist survey just came out, and it’s brutal.
With 56% of people disapproving of his job performance overall, including 51% who strongly disapprove, while just 39% approve. [Quote, find “51%”]
And on immigration, two-thirds of Americans say ICE has "gone too far, an 11-point increase since last summer. [Quote same link, find “11-point”]
But Trump’s response to all that is the same as it’s always been.
[Clip, 08:44 - 08:47, 09:31 - 09:37] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “Well, I don’t believe the polls, for one thing. … The polls ar almost dishonest, almost as dishonest as some of the reporters themselves.”
Now I will say, although the polls are definitely not fake, they can be a little misleading if you only look at the broad overall numbers.
Because when you narrow it down to just Republicans, their support remains fucking ironclad despite everything that’s happened over the past year.
With 85% approving of Trump’s performance in general, and roughly 80% approving of how he’s handled the economy and foreign policy. [Quote, find “85%”]
Then on immigration, almost three-quarters think ICE is doing a good job, and 77% say ICE is making Americans safer. [Quote same link, find “three-quarters”]
But with that said, Marist notes that Trump’s lost support among younger people, latinos and independents, all demographics that helped push him over the finish line in 2024.
In fact, on every single question asked, independents aligned with Democrats — often overwhelmingly. [Quote same link, find “every single”]
But to the extent that Trump does believe these numbers are real, he doesn’t blame anything he’s actually done.
Instead, he insisted over and over in this interview that objectively, his policies are amazing and perfect, and if people saw them objectively, he would be polling 100%, so the problem can’t be his policies; it must be his messaging. [Lead B roll into clip]
[Clip, 12:37 - 12:42, 12:45 - 12:46, 13:18 - 13:26] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “I think we do a phenomenal job, but I don’t think we’re good at public relations. … We don’t sell the great job that we’re doing. … We don’t do a good public relations job. That’s why I’m doing the interview with you today. I’m going to help my people. You know, PR. Public relations.”
Right, going back to the murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti? That’s just bad PR.
[Clip, 14:53 - 15:08, 15:23 - 15:28] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “Two people. It’s bad. I hate it. I hate even talking about it. Two people out of tens of thousands, okay? And you get bad publicity. Nobody talks about all of the murderers that we’re taking out of our country. … Each boat that we knock out, we save 25,000 American lives.”
And then even on the economy and inflation, that’s just bad PR too!
[Clip, 09:50 - 09:57; Clip, 17:25 - 17:32] Caption: [Tom Llamas:] “The polls on the e economy aren’t, they’re not great.” [Donald Trump:] “They should be great.” [Tom Llamas:] “They should be, so why aren’t they, if you believe that?” [Donald Trump:] “I don’t know. I don’t know.” … [Tom Llamas:] “Are people’s expectations too high, or is it just too expensive to live in America?” [Donald Trump:] “I just again don’t think we’re selling it properly. We’ve done a great job.”
But if it turns out that Americans just don’t want whatever it is he’s selling, and they make themselves clear at the ballot box this November, then it seems likely Trump’s gonna give those results the same label he gives the polls: fake.
[Clip, 27:10 - 27:24, 27:54 - 28:07, 28:18 - 28:23] Caption: [Donald Trump:] “Take a look at Detroit. Take a look at Philadelphia. Take a look at Atlanta. There are some areas that are unbelievably corrupt. I could give you plenty more too. I say that we cannot have corrupt elections. … If they don’t want voter ID, that means they want to cheat. We can’t allow cheating in elections. Now, if we need to put in federal controls as opposed to state controls, remember this, they’re really an agent.” … [Tom Llama:] “Will you trust the results of the midterms if Republicans lose control of Congress?” [Donald Trump:] “I will if the elections are honest.”
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But the possibility of Republicans losing control of Congress just became even more likely, because the Supreme Court made a ruling that paves the way for California's new congressional map that could give Democrats five more House seats.
Right, yesterday, the high court rejected an emergency appeal that the California Republican Party had filed in an attempt to block the map from taking effect.
A map that voters overwhelmingly approved to counter Trump’s undemocratic efforts to make red states redistrict to give Republicans more seats.
And almost immediately, California Republicans filed a lawsuit, arguing that the map was unconstitutional because the state had engaged in illegal racial gerrymandering to redraw lines that favored Latinos over other groups of voters.
But last month, a federal court rejected the GOP’s attempt to block the voter-approved map from taking effect.
With a three-judge panel ruling that there was not enough evidence to prove Democrats had drawn the map with racial intent.
Arguing that that the the ballot measure was explicitly presented to voters as a political gerrymander designed to flip five Republican-held seats, and claiming that the voters were clearly motivated by political partisanship, not race.
So, after that, the California GOP asked the Supreme Court to block the lower court’s ruling and reinstate the old congressional maps while the merits of the case play out, effectively reversing the explicit will of millions of voters.[]
And the fact that the high court rejected that appeal is incredibly significant because California is one of the few blue states that has redrawn its congressional maps in the gerrymandering arms race Trump kicked off.
Right, the Virginia State Legislature also passed a very similar bill that would let residents vote on a ballot initiative to redraw congressional maps and give Democrats a better shot at another four seats.
But last week, a federal judge blocked that map from going to voters, ruling in favor of a Republican challenge alleging that Democrats failed to follow the correct procedure.
And while the fate of that map is now in the hands of the Virginia Supreme Court, a very different battle is playing out in Maryland — the only other blue state that’s waded into the gerrymandering battle.
Right, just this week, the State House approved a new map that could add one more blue representative, but Democrats in the Senate widely oppose the measure, arguing it could backfire and end up costing them another seat.
But meanwhile, four red states have ALREADY redrawn their maps to give Republicans an edge, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis just announced he was kicking off a similar effort to meet Trump’s demands. [Feeding into Star’s story on Guthrie]
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And then, speaking of Trump, we should talk about the part he’s playing in the search for Nancy Guthrie - the missing mother of Today show anchor Savannah Guthrie.
Right, Savannah’s 84-year-old mother went missing from her home near Tucson, Arizona 5 days ago and the local authorities said it looks like she was taken by force.
She was last seen Saturday night around 9:30 and after she didn’t show up at church the following morning, her family called 911. []
And when the authorities found Nancy’s personal belongings like her car, phone, and wallet still at the house, as well as a trail of blood outside, they began to suspect foul play. []
Especially because it’s unlikely she wandered away on her own.
Nancy Guthrie is reportedly sharp mentally but has some mobility issues that leave her unable to walk more than 50 yards unassisted. []
With the local sheriff reiterating that this isn’t a dementia-related incident.
Even still, search and rescue teams worked all day and night following Nancy’s disappearance to make sure this wasn’t a case of an elderly person walking off on their own.
Investigators then took to canvassing the neighborhood and asking people in the area to review doorbell cameras and any other possible recordings for potential sightings. []
With the local sheriff’s office saying yesterday,
“Detectives believe Mrs. Guthrie was taken against her will, possibly during the overnight hours.” []
But adding there is currently no evidence to suggest this was targeted.
So the authorities began working to find out key details that could lead them to Nancy or her kidnapper.
Like what she was wearing when she was taken, whether she was put in a vehicle, and how many suspects might have been involved. []
And yesterday, on the 4th day after Nancy disappeared, Savannah Guthrie shared a video where she sat alongside her siblings, addressing the reports of an unverified ransom note.
As well as pleading with her mother’s kidnappers to release her or at least prove she’s still alive:
“We too have heard the reports about a ransom letter in the media. As a family we are doing everything that we can. We are ready to talk. However, we live in a world where voices and images are easily manipulated. We need to know without a doubt that she is alive and that you have her.” (2:17-2:50)
“She is 84 years old. Her health, her heart is fragile. She lives in constant pain. She is without any medicine. She needs it to survive. She needs it not to suffer.” (1:53-2:14)
As of now, there are reportedly no suspects - though there was a brief rumor that Nancy’s son-in-law could have been involved.
But that was quickly shot down by the local sheriff’s department. []
And investigators do think she is likely still alive - though with her health issues, who knows how long that will remain the case. []
In fact, we even saw the sheriff saying, “Time is not on our side.”
And that was already 2 days ago.
But as the days drag on with no answers, Nancy’s disappearance is getting more and more national attention.
With even Trump chiming in yesterday on Truth Social to say,
“I spoke with Savannah Guthrie, and let her know that I am directing ALL Federal Law Enforcement to be at the family’s, and Local Law Enforcement’s, complete disposal, IMMEDIATELY. We are deploying all resources to get her mother home safely.” []
And we saw that sentiment echoed by FBI Director Kash Patel - who, according to sources for Axios, is directing, quote, “all resources possible to help and is prepared to go if the situation warrants.” []
Though it is important to note Arizona officials are still leading the investigation and the FBI, at this point, is only playing a supporting role.
With Attorney General Pam Bondi, who has reportedly known Savannah Guthrie for a very long time, saying she’s receiving constant updates after speaking with Savannah on the phone yesterday. []
So we know this situation has grasped the attention of some of the most powerful people in the country at the moment.
Which, in this case unlike many others, is probably a good thing.
And, at this point, it’s just a waiting game while the investigators do their jobs.
While we wait for answers, our hearts go out to Savannah and her siblings and we all hope that their mother is found and brought home safely.
And whoever is responsible is brought to justice.
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The Washington Post just announced absolutely massive layoffs.
And when I say massive, I mean fucking massive — sources have said that the cuts account for more than a third of The Post’s overall staff.
We’re talking more than 300 of the roughly 800 journalists in the newsroom.
Hell, they even laid off one reporter in the middle of a warzone – Right, she’s been in Ukraine covering its war with Russia. []
But anyway, in a newsroom call yesterday morning, where Executive Editor Matt Murray announced the layoffs, which he described as “a strategic reset” that was overdue in light of “difficult and even disappointing realities.”
And specifically, Murray said the paper would be making a number of enormous cuts and major overhauls across numerous departments.
And some functions will be shuttered altogether, including the entire sports desk — though some reporters will stay on to write feature stories.
Similarly, the Books section will also be shut down, and the newspapers' signature daily news podcast, “Post Reports,” has been canceled.
Beyond that, the paper’s international desk will be shrunk dramatically, and while some foreign bureaus will remain open, others are shuttering entirely.
With the Cairo Bureau Chief announcing on X that all of the Middle East correspondents and editors had been laid off.[]
But some of the steepest cuts were made to the Metro desk, which covers D.C., Maryland, and Virginia.
With Murray describing the move as a “restructuring,” though you had an anonymous Metro staffer who lost their job telling NPR that only around a dozen of the 40 people employed at the desk were not fired.
And I really can’t overstate how huge a deal this is — experts say we’re looking at a complete overhaul that will change the very nature of a nearly 150-year old newspaper.
Right, with these changes, it appears that the Post is setting itself up to primarily be a federal paper that focuses on the U.S. government and American politics, rather than the holistic, legacy media outlet.
With multiple former editors telling NPR that it looks like the paper is trying to compete more with specialized publications like Politico and Punchbowl instead of The New York Times.
But while the layoffs and restructuring are absolutely huge, they also aren’t entirely unexpected.
Right, the paper has been seriously struggling over the last few years — both culturally and economically.
Right, in late 2023, Jeff Bezos — who owns the paper — hired British media executive Will Lewis as publisher and CEO to help The Post become more profitable amid falling audiences and subscriptions.
But Lewis’ tenure h as been plagued with controversies, and he has been consistently at odds with his own newsroom, which he has increasingly distanced himself from, avoiding major meetings and announcements — even the one yesterday.
But despite a series of experimental changes — including a big focus on AI — Lewis has failed to come up with a cohesive strategy for the paper’s future, and the outlet has continued to struggle.
Over the last two years, there have been numerous rounds of layoffs, and many staffers have taken buyouts that Lewis pushed, encouraging employees to take the offer if they “do not feel aligned with the company's plan.”
And all of that has already gutted the paper that Bezos’ unfathomable money bags had once revitalized, with the Washington Post Guild saying that its workforce has shrunk by roughly 400 people in the last three years.
Right, but Bezos has also made some moves over the last few years that have had huge impacts on the paper.
Last year, he changed the papers' once-esteemed opinion section to have a much more conservative tilt.
Then, of course, there was his decision to kill the paper’s planned endorsement of Kamala Harris in 2024 — a move that resulted in mass cancellations from subscribers.
Which is why you also have many people blaming Bezos for the layoffs, arguing that he is literally one of the richest men in the world — with an estimated $260 billion — so he could easily prevent this if he wanted to.
But Bezos, for his part, has remained totally silent throughout this whole ordeal.
He actively refused to respond to letters from multiple reporting teams pleading against the cuts, and he wasn’t even on the call announcing these huge layoffs and historic changes.
And that has only prompted more outrage and allegations that Bezos is abandoning The Post after driving it into the ground.
With the Post Guild saying in a statement that if Bezos “is no longer willing to invest in the mission that has defined this paper for generations and serve the millions who depend on Post journalism, The Post deserves a steward that will.”
That was also echoed by former Executive Editor Marty Baron, who accused Bezos of exacerbating the newspaper's troubles through “ill-conceived decisions.”
Pointing to the Harris endorsement debacle and claiming that the layoffs were just part of “Bezos’s sickening efforts to curry favor” with Trump.
But, of course, it’s not just The Post — numerous different papers have struggled to stay profitable and done layoffs over the last few years as news consumption shifts away from traditional, mainstream media.
But experts say it’s more important than ever to invest in trusted sources and fact-based reporting to combat the constant, growing flow of misinformation.
[Feeding into predictions market story] And, on the note of countering misinformation…
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Major prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have a serious fake news problem that poses a major threat to American democracy.
Or at least what’s left of it…
Right, if you’re not familiar, prediction markets allow people to bet on the outcome of news events.
We’re talking anything from elections and sports games to when Jesus will come back and exactly how long Karoline Leavitt’s press conference will last.
And these markets — specifically Kalshi and Polymarket — have exploded over the last year or so, gaining widespread, mainstream popularity and handling billions of dollars in weekly trading.
And part of that enormous success is because these platforms have marketed themselves as legitimate, responsible financial institutions and “truth machines” driven by hard data.
Right, they claim that they cut through the noise of the news, providing more accurate information about the state of the world and estimations of future events.
Specifically, proponents argue that the pooled wisdom of “the people” is a more reliable source for forecasting than traditional media, polling, commentators, and experts, which carry their own biases.
They also say that people who bet money are incentivized to filter out emotional bias and look for objective data because they have skin in the game, so the financial stakes add a level of accountability that those other sources lack.
But many critics have hit back, arguing that there’s no reason to think these metrics are a better predictor of the future.
For one, the platforms represent a very small subset of the public: people who are willing and wealthy enough to place bets.
What’s more, research has shown that these sites are dominated by young men who have higher risk appetites and are prone to gambling.
And, as Better Markets explains, the data from these platforms don’t offer any kind of ultimate truth because:
“absent inside information, the users on these sites are no more likely to know whether a candidate will win an election or a team will win a game than anyone else.”
Right, unless the people using these markets are insider trading — which is a real concern, but a whole separate deep dive — they don’t have any special knowledge.
They’re just making bets off their own information — which they presumably got from the same experts, commentators, and outlets that prediction market supporters claim are biased.
But, beyond that, these markets are also incredibly susceptible to manipulation.
Right, a well-funded actor or group could easily make a bet so big that it skews the odds of a prediction entirely.
Then, they could turn around and try to use that shift as proof that the event they bet on is becoming more likely.
And the implications there are especially alarming when it comes to elections.
Right, say, for example, a bad actor places a huge bet in an election that artificially sways the odds to make it look like a certain candidate has increased support or is more likely to win than their opponent.
If we take that as a real indication of who will win the election — which these markets say we should — it creates a bandwagon effect.
Soon, you have legacy media outlets reporting about the spike, which gives it even more credibility and creates momentum for the candidate, giving them a higher profile and attracting more supporters.
The elevated profile could also prompt donors to flock to the candidate or pull funds from their opponent, further advancing their campaign.
And some voters might see all this and decide not to vote at all because the election looks like a foregone conclusion.
Right, it basically creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So these sites have the potential to determine real electoral outcomes, making them incredibly powerful tools for political influence.
And that’s especially true because experts also say that the very structure of these markets actively incentivizes the spread of misinformation.
Right, for one, it gives people a motive to spread unverified claims so they can manipulate odds and then directly profit from how the market reacts to their manipulation.
Like by shorting a market and then spreading negative rumors to drive prices down.
And the same logic can be applied to political interference: a bad actor — either domestic or foreign — could similarly profit from spreading misinformation by betting against a candidate and then attacking them with deepfakes or fake news bots to crash their market odds.
And that’s particularly alarming given the fact that Kalshi and Polymarket have both actively been caught spreading false claims that could influence their own markets on numerous occasions.
Right, despite their claim that prediction markets are more reliable than news media, both platforms have been increasingly wading into the news waters, using their social media accounts to pump out tons of content, effectively becoming viral “news” sources with posts that spread faster and further than verified reporting.
But these accounts have been accused of prioritizing engagement over factual accuracy.
Right, as a recent Axios report notes, these platforms design content that sparks outrage, big reactions, and rapid sharing — even if that content turns out to be false or misleading.
For example, just a few weeks ago, Polymarket randomly claimed on X that Jeff Bezos told “aspiring Gen Z entrepreneurs to start at real world jobs like McDonalds or Palantir before starting a business.”[]
A post that is still up even though it received a community note after Bezos issued a statement rejecting the advice and accusing Polymarket of making the quote up.
Polymarket's X account also posted and then deleted a false claim that Trump had deported so many people from Minnesota that the state was going to lose a congressional seat after the Census.
You also had the account incorrectly reporting that Iran's regime had "lost control" of Tehran during a nationwide communications blackout — a time when independent reporting on the protests was essentially impossible.[]
And amid the chaos over Trump’s Greenland threats, Kalshi falsely claimed that the U.S. and Denmark were in "technical talks" to buy the island.
What’s more, experts also say these platforms have made the fake news problem even worse by giving “affiliate badges” to influencers who spread false or satirical news.
And those are just some examples — we’ve also seen Polymarket repeatedly targeting big MAGA opps like Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Ilhan Omar with what Axios described as “false, misleading or trollish claims.”
Which is actually super notable because both these platforms have deep ties to Trumpworld — Donald Trump Jr. is a paid investor to Kalshi, as well as an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket.
Now, very notably here, there isn’t any direct evidence that Polymarket or Kalshi is intentionally spreading false information to benefit certain bettors, but we’re also talking about a whole market with almost zero oversight, regulation, and transparency.
And regardless, the fact that these platforms have repeatedly spread misinformation and kept so much of it up also shows that they are okay with fostering an environment where false information can flourish.
Even when that misinformation influences prediction markets that these platforms claim are sources of the ultimate truth.
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American boots are on the ground in Nigeria!
That’s the same African nation where Trump has amplified allegations of Christian genocide – which led him to authorize strikes against extremists in the country on Christmas Day.
And now, as the US is getting even more involved, we gotta talk about what Trump is getting wrong about the situation in Nigeria – and how the country’s latest massacre is just one example of that.
But first, we should talk about how we got here in the first place.
And what you need to know is that certain Chrisitan activists have spent years pushing for American intervention in Nigeria – but it’s more recently that American lawmakers and even celebrities have really taken up the cause.
Right, going back to Trump's first term, you had him designating Nigeria as what’s known as a“Country of Particular Concern.”
The label is meant for countries where religious freedom is threatened – basically putting them on the shortlist for sanctions.
But you had the Biden administration lifting Nigeria’s designation in 2021.
With the State Department’s religious freedom report noting that mass killings in the country were indiscriminate – affecting both Christians and Muslims. []
And that determination stayed pretty much the same for the remainder of Biden’s presidency.
But then you had Trump returning to the White House – and this seemingly provided these activists with another opening.
With the New York Times reporting that two dozen activists from groups dedicated to exposing Christian persecution around the world “pursued” various Trump officials – as well as Republicans in Congress. []
In March, for example, you had a Nigerian bishop speaking to the House subcommittee on Africa.
With him telling its members that “the experience of the Nigerian Christians today can be summed up as that of a Church under Islamist extermination.” []
And what happened in the country in July seemed like proof – it was one of the most horrific massacres the country had seen in years.
Attackers shot to death, hacked to pieces, and burnt alive as at least 100 civilians in a village in Nigeria’s North Central region.
It was a mostly Christian village, and the perpetrators? They were believed to have been bandits belonging to one of the country’s predominantly Muslim ethnic groups.
And so these religious organizations on Capitol Hill shared stories about the attack in an effort to get lawmakers’ attention.
And one that struck a chord with them, reportedly, was published by The Free Press – the outlet founded by media executive Bari Weiss, who has more recently come under repeated fire for the changes she’s making as the new editor-in-chief of CBS News.
But, in any case, the article emphasized that Christians had been killed by Muslims and and slammed mainstream media for not paying more attention.
Also pointing to figures given by religious groups to argue that violence specifically targeting Nigerian Christians for their faith is widespread.
And the issue quickly picked up steam on Capitol Hill.
You first had Virginia Rep. Riley Moore citing the attack when he introduced a House Resolution condemning the persecution of Christians in Muslim-majority countries.
You then had Texas Senator Ted Cruz introducing a measure calling for sanctions against Nigeria.
And finally these groups actually secured a meeting with Trump officials near the White House in late October.
And it was only a couple days later that Trump took to Truth Social to announce that he had officially re-designated Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern.”
With him following up in another post the next– writing:
“If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities” – adding:
“ I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians!”
“WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!”
And from there you even had Nicki Minaj posting about this issue on social media.
And then she was actually invited to speak about alleged Christian persecution in Nigeria at the United Nations.
That same bishop testified to Congress again – telling the committee:
“The Church alone cannot stop the killings; it requires coordinated political, military and humanitarian intervention.”
And you also had dozens of current and retired NFL players signing an open letter calling on Trump to do more to confront “religious persecution in Nigeria.”
And in the background the US military began assessing strike options and conducting intelligence-gathering surveillance flights over large parts of the country.
And on Christmas Day, which was reportedly a deliberate choice by Trump, it launched an attack involving more than a dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles on what it said were Islamic State targets – with Trump writing on Truth Social:
“...the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!”
“I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was.”
“May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.”
Now, with that, notably, you had a spokesperson for Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirming that the strikes had been carried out in cooperation with his government – but you also had him adding:
“Terrorist violence in any form — whether directed at Christians, Muslims, or other communities — remains an affront to Nigeria’s values and to international peace and security.” []
And with that, the Nigerian government has consistently denied any systematic persecution of Christians.
But they’ve also kind of stopped arguing with the Trump administration under the pressure – with the country’s foreign minister saying after the strikes:
“We are not going to get bogged down on narratives.”[]
And so we've actually seen tensions subsiding and increased cooperation.
Last month, high-ranking American officials went to Nigeria to announce increased military cooperation between the two nations.
And this week, the US military deployed a small military team to Nigeria – the first acknowledgment of boots on the ground.
With an unnamed former U.S. official telling Reuters the U.S. team appeared to be heavily involved in intelligence gathering to help go after terrorist groups.[]
But if they’re only trying to protect Christians, they’ll be leaving a lot of people tod die – because there’s no real solid evidence that Christians are being killed more frequently than any other religious group.
All that’s clear is that a lot of people are being killed.
RIght, Nigeria isn’t technically at war – but more people are killed there than in many war-torn countries.
In 2025 alone, for example, it’s been reported that more than 12,000 people were killed by various violent groups. []
The victims include large numbers of both Christians and Muslims – and there are many different reasons for the violence.
There’s what’s been described as a jihadist insurgency mostly in the North East and North West, which is where most of the people, and most of the victims of armed groups, are Muslim.
But with that, you have at least two main groups operating there that are affiliated with the Islamic State.
In the North West, you have the Islamic State West Africa Province – which is an offshoot of Boko Haram.
And in the North East, you have the lesser-known Islamic State Sahel Province.
And on top of all that, also in the North West as well as North Central regions you have armed groups often described as bandits looting and kidnapping for ransom.
And in the North Central region you also have a lot more violence between predominantly Christian farming communities and mostly Muslim groups of nomadic herders.
With the experts saying these clashes are rooted in competition over land and water but are exacerbated by religious and ethnic differences.
And similarly, kidnappings targeting priests, for instance, may seem like an obvious example of religious targeting.
But many analysts reportedly see this as being driven more by money than religious hatred.
And that’s because priests are viewed as influential figures whose worshippers or organisations can mobilise funds quickly. []
And ultimately, data collected by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data program?
It shows that there were nearly 12,000 attacks against civilians in Nigeria from 2020 until September of last year.
385 of those attacks resulting in 317 deaths were described as “targeted events against Christians …where Christian identity of the victim was a reported factor.”
And 196 attacks resulting in 417 deaths were similarly described as targeting Muslims. []
And, of course, this data is far from perfect.
But stats relied for advancing claims of Christian persecution are sometimes incredibly dubious.
Right, Ted Cruz and Riley Moore, for example, have cited the work of a Nigerian man who claims to have documented 125,000 Christian deaths in Nigeria since 2009.
But his reporting is often not doublechecked and is almost entirely based on “secondary sources” such as Christian interest groups and Google searches.[]
He also reportedly called for what would likely be considered the ethnic cleansing of a Muslim-majority group in the country. []
And even his own flawed methodology said there were at least 60,000 deaths in that same time period among those he described as “Moderate Muslims.” []
And the most recent violence has only gone to show how it affects everyone.
Right, on Tuesday, gunmen believed to be with one of the Islamic State-affiliated groups killed more than 160 people in two villages in North Central Nigeria.
A local politician said the attackers had rounded up residents, bound their hands behind their backs, and killed them – as well as burned down homes and shops.[]
And residents told Reuters that the gunmen were jihadists who often preached in the village and that they demanded that locals ditch their allegiance to the Nigerian state and switch to sharia law – and when the villagers pushed back, they said, the militants opened fire. []
And at least one X account with more than 200,000 followers connected the attack to a recent kidnappings at a Catholic School and churches – saying “they executed 170 Christians for refusing Sharia law.”
But we’ve seen reports that this was a mostly Muslim community.
With Nigeria’s president saying in a statement:
"It is commendable that community members, even though Muslims, refused to be conscripted into a belief that promotes violence over peace.”
But yeah, ultimately, the situation is very complicated, so anyone who tries to tell you it’s simple, don’t believe them.
