Trump's New Tariffs Are Worse Than Expected, Why Elon Musk FAILED BIG in Wisconsin, & What's Next
PDS Published 04/02/2025
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Democrats came out of a series of elections yesterday with some solid momentum.
But the question remains: just how much momentum was it, and can it actually carry over to electoral wins in 2026?
Right, as we talked about on Monday, Democrats faced a series of very important tests in the first big elections of 2025.
And easily the most high-stakes was the race for a Supreme Court seat in Wisconsin that would determine whether the court retains its 4-3 liberal majority or flips conservative.
A determination that had sweeping implications not just for Wisconsinites, but also for control of Congress because the liberal court could potentially redraw congressional maps that give the GOP 6 of the state’s 8 House seats. []
And what we ultimately saw there was the liberal candidate, Susan Crawford, easily beating out her conservative opponent Brad Schimel (Shimmle).
With most of the votes in, Crawford has taken a solid 10-point lead, beating out Shimmel 55% to 45% as of recording.[]
And that’s quite significant because we’re talking about a big margin in a state Trump won in 2024.
A state that also has been decided by less than one point in the last three presidential elections.
Now, that said, Democrat-aligned candidates have won Wisconsin Supreme Court races by similar margins in recent years, but the turnout in this race makes it especially notable.
Right, the total turnout was just over 2.3 million — that’s more than the 1.8 million voters who showed up during a 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court race that became a referendum on abortion.
In fact, that’s not too far away from the turnout the state saw in the last midterm elections, when there were many important and competitive statewide races that ultimately brought out 2.6 million voters.
Now, with all that, experts say it’s difficult to really view this election as a major referendum on Trump’s first months in office that will accurately predict anything about the midterms.
But one thing that is clear is that Crawford’s was a definite rebuke of at leasht one major pillar of the Trump administration: Elon Musk.
Right, Musk tied himself to this race VERY closely, spending a TON of political and monetary capital trying to get Shimmel elected.
Which I’m sure has nothing to do with the fact that Tesla has a lawsuit pending in Wisconsin that could end up before the state Supreme Court…
Not only did Musk pour more than $25 million into this election, making him by far the biggest spender in what became the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history —
He also actively campaigned for Shimmel in public appearances, posted about the race constantly on X, offered people money to sign petitions, and gave out questionably legal $1 million checks to voters.
But that appeared to backfire — with The New York Times explaining:
“Instead of making the race an early referendum on Mr. Trump’s White House and abortion rights, Wisconsin Democrats pivoted to make Mr. Musk their entire focus, while Republicans rode the wave of his largesse.”
But that, in turn, gave Democrats one of the best possible political gifts: a great fucking boogkeyman.
Right, in the past, Democrats have used Trump as their boogeyman, tying him to conservative candidates as a way to mobilize against them.
But that clearly didn’t work in 2024 — in fact, Democrats actively seemed to shy away from highlighting his connections to Shimmel due to fears that it would have the opposite effect and energize pro-Trump voters.
And, despite what he might think, Musk isn’t Trump — he has clearly upset voters with all his DOGE policies, and his unfavorability is lower than Trump’s both in Wisconsin and nationally.
Right, as one Democratic strategist put it:
“He’s good foil. Trump is a good foil in many ways, but at the end of the day, a lot of people voted for Trump. Nobody voted for Elon Musk and especially the outsized role he has played.”[]
Now, of course, it is impossible to say how much of a role Musk played in swaying this election.
Though, notably, Republicans did do worse in the Supreme Court race than in the other statewide election for Superintendent of Public Instruction, where Musk wasn’t a big factor.
And many Democrats are still taking the outcome as evidence that their anti-Musk messaging is effective.
And it seems like Republicans might be too, because just today, we saw reports that Trump is telling people in his inner circle — including members of the Cabinet — that Musk will be stepping back from his current role in coming weeks.
With Politico — which broke the story — reporting:
“Musk’s looming retreat comes as some Trump administration insiders and many outside allies have become frustrated with his unpredictability and increasingly view the billionaire as a political liability, a dynamic that was thrown into stark relief Tuesday when a conservative judge Musk vocally supported lost his bid for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 10 points.”
Now, as far as what might happen, some insiders told the outlet that the transition will likely correspond to the end of Musk’s time as a “special government employee.”
Right, the administration has given him that status, insisting he isn’t actually the leader of DOGE.
This in part to avoid legal issues that have arisen over an unappointed official having so much power, as well as to exempt Musk from certain federal rules around ethics and conflicts-of-interest.
But the thing about the special government employee designation is that it comes with a 130-day time limit, which for Musk would expire in late May or early June.
Now, notably here, some sources have said that reports of Musk being pushed out are overblown, claiming that Trump is still very happy with his work and, at the very least, Musk won’t be leaving until his work with DOGE is done.
But, at the same time, these latest reports also seem to mark a significant reversal from just a month ago, when White House officials and allies were saying that Musk was “here to stay” and that Trump would find a way to keep him after the 130-day limit.
And in recent days, both Trump and Musk have been eluding to some kind of transition or semi-departure — with the president telling reporters on Monday:
“At some point Elon’s going to want to go back to his company. He wants to. I’d keep him as long as I could keep him.” 00:12 - 00:22
And last week, Fox News’ Bret Baier asked Musk if he would be ready to leave when his special government employee status expires, and Musk responded:
“I think we will have accomplished most of the work required to reduce the deficit by $1 trillion within that time frame.” 1:51 - 1:58
But the White House has also given some mixed messages — yesterday, while results from Wisconsin were rolling in, a spokesperson said:
“As the President said, this White House would love to keep Elon around for as long as possible. Elon has been instrumental in executing the President’s agenda, and will continue this good work until the President says otherwise.”
Now, of course, it’s possible that moods have changed now that we’ve seen the final results in Wisconsin, and it’s unclear if this whole ordeal will actually be a final nail in the coffin.
Or, in Musk’s case, a nail in the hyperbolic chamber he sleeps in that also supplies him with fresh blood from the finest orphans.
But, all the Musk stuff aside, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race wasn’t the only notable election that took place yesterday.
Right, as I also talked about on Monday, there were two special elections in Florida to fill House seats vacated by Republican representatives.
And while both of those seats ended up staying red, as widely expected, the big question here was how close the margins would be and if Democrats could make gains.
And although neither ended up being particularly close — even the race for the 6th district, which some polls showed as being competitive — Democrats still overperformed in both contests.
Right, with most of the votes counted, returns show the Republicans in both the 1st and 6th districts winning by around 14%.
Now, obviously, that’s a solid margin — but not compared to how Trump performed just five months ago.
Right, Trump won the 6th district by 30 points in November — more than double the percentage of votes the Republican candidate received.
And in the 1st district— which wasn’t even the race that had competitive polls — Trump won by a whopping 37%, meaning the Democrat there overperformed by a lot.
Hell, the Democratic candidate even managed to flip one county in the district — a county that Trump very notably won by 19 points.
In fact, according to data compiled by the Downballot, the Democrats’ overperformance in the 1st district was the biggest of ANY of the roughly three dozen special elections since Trump was first elected in 2016.
Now, of course, despite those margins, you had Trump patting himself on the back, attributing the wins in Florida to his endorsements of the candidates.[]
But Democrats, for their part, have taken these races as encouraging signs of broader momentum.
Right, in addition to the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, Democrats have clocked a number of other wins in smaller elections recently, flipping two State Senate seats in special elections in both Iowa and Pennsylvania.
And, as Democratic pollster John Anzalone explained:
“When Democrats are outperforming or winning, it’s a big psychological boost in a time when Democrats are feeling pretty low. They’re going to be dealing with the political environment that Trump has created, which is not good right now for Republicans.”
But, of course, the question is whether they can keep that momentum going until the midterms.
Right, off-season and special elections aren’t always good indicators of broader trends — especially this far out.
Turn out is lower and has been skewing more Democrat in recent years — particularly higher educated, politically involved Democrats who weren’t able to sway the presidential election or many other key Congressional races in 2024.
So it’s unclear if the momentum and frustration we’re seeing in these races translates to the broader electorate — or if frustration alone is enough to sway them, especially if it’s true that Musk is stepping away, and Democrats lose their new boogeyman.
And that’s something that experts openly acknowledged, with Anzalone arguing that while Dems are good at capitalizing on anger, that’s more of a defensive position.
And it’s not a substitute for economic-focused messages or other more affirmative efforts to connect to working-class Americans, adding:
“Anytime that we’ve been winning is because they’ve been losing. Republicans screwing up is not a Democratic strategy.”
And honestly, that really sums it up perfectly — Democrats’ strategy is just “Republicans bad!” — they don’t have a firm policy platform that appeals to the voters who determine which party is in control.
And at the end of the day, Democrats got a solid win in Wisconsin, but Republicans also padded out their majority in the House with two more Trump loyalists.
And while Trump-related frustration might propel them to wins in midterm elections where the president’s party often loses ground, it doesn’t necessarily mean they have a cohesive, pragmatic platform that can resonate in a national contest.
But for now, we’ll just have to wait and see, and with that, I’d love to know your thoughts in those comments down below.
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Liberation day is finally here.
With Donald Trump appearing in the Rose Garden just as I was wrapping up today’s show and revealing the tariffs he’s been hyping up for his so-called “liberation day.” [B roll]
And as we talked about in more depth yesterday, stock markets have been queasy for weeks now, especially leading up to this day. [Image]
Because Trump has been ambiguous about the details of his plan, with some sources saying there’d be one flat tax on all imports, and others saying they’d be reciprocal tariffs on different countries and different goods.
But we’ve now got an answer.
"In a few moments I will sign a historic exec order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world. Reciprocal. That means they do it to us and we do it to them.Very simple cant get any simpler than that." (0:08-0:24)
"For years, hardworking American citizens were forced to sit on sideslines as other nations got rich and powerful. Much of it at our expense, but now it is our turn to prosper.” (0:03-0:16)
“This will indeed be the golden age of America. It’s coming back." (0:21-0:26)
With him then accusing other countries of decimating American industry with trade barriers, both monetary and non-monetary, manipulating their currencies, subsidizing their exports, stealing U.S. intellectual property, imposing value-added taxes, and adopting unfair rules and technical standards.
“For decades out country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, friend and foe alike” (0:00-0:08)
With him also calling out specific countries for what he claims are unfair trade practices, including Thailand, India, China, Vietnam, the European Union, South Korea and Japan.
Though later on he also softened his attack on the rest of the world and sharpened his critique of domestic opponents.
"Such horrendous imbalances have devastated our industrial base and put our national security at risk. I don't blame these other countries. I blame former presidents and past leaders who weren’t doing their jobs. They let it happen" (1:25-1:40)
But As we’ve talked about before, this move is certain to create shockwaves across the global economy.
Right, I mean already from this announcement we’ve seen markets roiling, with people predicting a recession.
Because the overwhelming majority of economists and policy experts agree that tariffs like these are going to cripple both the United States and its trading partners.
And to some extent, Trump doesn’t even dispute that; right, he’s argued that short-term pain is necessary to restore American power and prosperity.
So I’m sure we’ll have more to talk about tomorrow after the dust settles, but for now, what are your reactions to this world-altering announcement?
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Federal government employees and programs continue to get slammed as the Trump administration pushes forward with sweeping changes.
The latest example is the Department of Health and Human Services, which is run by RFK Jr.
Roughly 10,000 workers were laid off yesterday across its various agencies and programs.
Some programs like the Administration for Community Living seemingly had all of their staff fired after they were turned away when they tried to show up to work yesterday.
That program helps run senior living centers and also runs the Meals on Wheels program, which is credited with giving 216 million meals a year to the disabled and elderly.[]
The former head of that administration under the Biden Administration -- Alison Barkoff -- told outlets:
"The programs that ACL implements improve the lives of literally tens of millions of older adults, people with disabilities and their families and caregivers.”
“There's no way to have these [layoffs] and not impact the programs and the people who rely on them."
Other programs run by the HHS have also effectively been gutted.
Right, the Division of Energy Assistance reportedly had its entire staff laid off.
Meaning that programs like LIHEAP (no idea how to pronounce this) -- which helps 5.9 million low income families pay for heat and cooling bills -- are left in complete limbo.
It’s not like the money can just be clawed back either.
Take the case of LIHEAP -- Congress handed them $4.1 billion.
Legally that money is supposed to be spent on that program… except now there’s no one at the program to use the $378 million left going into summer.[]
So it’s unclear what’s going to happen to it.
In an announcement last week the department said that many of these roles would instead be taken over by the HHS itself, but how that will actually function is unclear.
Other major agencies under RFK Jr’s leadership were also axed.
Top administrators at the office that oversees the FDA’s tobacco response were fired.[]
While traditional tobacco is on the back foot, the agency was forced to grow recently in response to the rise of vaping, which has been the focus of a ton of lawsuits from the feds.
And it’s feared that this cut could heavily undermine those efforts.
Additionally, 130 of the leaders at the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine were fired.
These people are veterinarians researching how to best respond to bird flu, which is something that the US has been grappling with for awhile now.
Right, it’s one of the reasons eggs are so expensive right now as we have to keep culling chicken populations.
Not to mention that bird flu can jump to humans on rare occasions.
(Which is really dangerous because that’s the first step to possibly becoming the next pandemic).
On top of that, they’ve also issued recalls on a variety of pet food over fears it's contaminated with bird flu.
In addition to cutting leadership, another strategy seems to be cutting the middle-men who actually make the programs run smoothly.
For example, the Center for Veterinary Medicine also had substantial cuts across its communications and purchasing staff, leading one FDA official to tell CBS News:
"The food compliance officers and animal drug reviewers survived, but they have no one at the comms office to put out a safety alert, no admin staff to pay external labs to test products.”[]
Overall it’s expected that these layoffs will have wide-ranging impacts that are hard to quantify right now, with the head of the American Federation of Government Employees union saying:
“Cutting 10,000 critical public health jobs puts every American at risk — weakening our defenses against disease outbreaks, unsafe medications, and contaminated food.”
“Congress and citizens must join us in pushing back. Our health, safety, and security depend on a strong, fully staffed public health system.”
This isn’t even the end of cuts at the federal government either.
Departments like the Department of Agriculture haven’t started their White House-ordered “reduction in force” orders yet.[]
Well, other than offering buyouts and early retirements.
But the mass layoffs we’ve seen elsewhere in the federal government haven't started yet.
And they’re the third-biggest non-national security department in the country.[]
(Although compared to the ones like Defense and National Security they’re quite small).
Getting into every single layoff would take forever, but we’ll likely be talking about their impacts for years to come.
In the meantime, let’s just brace for the next wave of layoffs.
Head to dbrand today to reserve your DBRAND “Killswitch” case for the Nintendo Switch 2 launching in June 2025!
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Twenty-five hours and five minutes.
That’s how long Cory Booker stood on the Senate floor speaking virtually non-stop in protest of Donald Trump’s administration.
With him starting at 07:00 p.m. Monday night and ending around 8:00 p.m. last night. [B roll]
And yes, that is the longest speech in Congressional history. [Same B roll]
With him beating the record set in 1957 by the segregationist Strom Thurmond, who filibustered the Civil Rights Act for over 24 hours. [Screenshot]
Which makes this feat 68 years later even more symbolic, since Booker himself is a black man. [B roll]
And he later told reporters that was part of the motivation for him to keep going. [Same B roll]
[Clip, 00:59 - 01:08] Caption: “I always felt that it was a strange shadow hanging over this institution that the longest speech, of all the issues that have come up, all the noble causes that people have done or the things that people have tried to stop, I just found it strange that he had the record.”
But the main focus of his speech was the state of our country in 2025, and he talked about everything.
Right, healthcare, education, immigration, housing, the economy, Social Security, veterans affairs, agriculture, trade, foreign policy, democracy, women’s rights, racial equality. [B roll]
And even then, he says he still didn’t get to everything he wanted to cover. [Same B roll]
With his staff reportedly having worked throughout last week to fill 15 binders with 1,164 pages of material for his speech. [Same B roll and Quote, find “1,164”]
And he never pulled out any of the gimmicks used to kill time by previous filibusters, like reading the phone book or Doctor Seuss. [B roll]
In fact, when fellow Democrats tried to introduce some levity, such as when Chuck Schumer or Amy Klobuchar invited him to chat about sports or music, Booker acknowledged them but refused the distractions and went right back to his speech. [B roll]
[Clip, 00:27 - 00:43] Caption: “I won’t stand for the collective assault on the Constitution by a man who even the highest judge in our land, a Republican-appointed judge, said stop threatening and bullying other branches of government!”
And despite clearly getting worn down as the hours passed, he just powered through. [Continue B roll]
With him saying as late as 15 hours in that he still had fuel in the tank. [Same B roll, 00:38]
And some 21 hours in, Ted Cruz even tweeted, presumably in jest, that he was contemplating pulling the fire alarm. [Tweet]
But he didn’t, and a few hours later the bell tolled on Strom Thurmond’s legacy. [Lead B roll into clip]
[Clip, 00:08 - 00:30] Caption: [Chuck Schumer:] “Would the Senator yield for a question?” [Cory Booker:] “Chuck Schumer it’s the only time in my life I can tell you no.” *Laughs* [Chuck Schumer:] “I just want to tell you a question. Do you know you have just broken the record? Do you know how proud this caucus is of you? Do you know how proud America is of you?” *Applause*
With a clearly emotional Booker there wiping tears from his face and placing a hand over his heart. [Continue B roll with light audio]
But he didn’t stop there; no, he kept going for almost another hour.
And when you think about the raw demands made upon his mind and body, you begin to understand how impressive this is.
Right, first of all, obviously he couldn’t sleep, so you can imagine the exhaustion he must have felt. [B roll]
He also couldn’t use the bathroom at all, and according to his staff, he wasn’t wearing a catheter or a diaper. [Same B roll and Quote, find “diaper”]
With him explaining that he had fasted since Friday and stopped drinking water on Sunday night. [Same B roll]
Which makes it all the more mind-blowing that he was able to form any words by the end of it; I mean, his mouth must have been like the Sahara. [Same B roll]
Not to mention the muscle cramps and spasms he says the lack of water caused him, which he was apparently struggling to keep under control as the speech progressed. [Same B roll]
And then there’s the fact that he stood on two legs, without a single break, for 25 straight hours. [Same B roll]
Right, ‘cause that’s one of the Senate rules; you have to remain standing if you want to hold the floor. [Same B roll]
So as Senator Chris Murphy explains, Booker had someone remove his chair just so he wouldn’t feel tempted to sit down. [Same B roll and Tweet]
Leading to some aching back pain and sore legs, according to him. [Same B roll]
And keep in mind, this is a 55-year-old man, 56 after his birthday later this month; he’s no spring chicken. [Same B roll]
But finally he concluded his performance, and you can literally hear his voice quivering with the weight of the burden he’s endured. [Lead B roll into clip]
[Clip, 00:06 - 00:13; Clip, 00:33 - 01:07; Clip, 01:40] Caption: “The power of the people is greater than the people in power. It is time to heed the words of the man I began this whole thing with, John Lewis. … he said he had to do something. He would not normalize a moment like this. He would not just go along with business as usual. He wouldn’t know how to solve it, but there’s one thing that he would do that I hope we all can do that I think I did a little bit of tonight. He said for us to go out and cause some good trouble, necessary trouble, to redeem the soul of our nation. … Let’s get in good trouble. My friend madame president, I yield the floor.” *Cheers and applause*
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Gazans are once again finding themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place and being forced to flee their homes after Israel announced it was going to seize large chunks of the territory.
This comes after Israel already renewed fighting in the territory after negotiations on continuing a ceasefire with Hamas fell apart.
(Each side blames the other and we’ve talked about this in detail but for those who missed it:
Israel wanted a new deal that would get hostages released quicker while Hamas wanted to continue under the old framework. Either way the deal is dead).
Then today, Israeli defense minister Israel Katz announced that “troops will move to clear areas of terrorists and infrastructure, and seize extensive territory that will be added to the state of Israel’s security areas.”
And of course, with this operation, Israel conducted airstrikes, with many locals feeling they were indiscriminate.
For example, a UN clinic sheltering families was reportedly hit, which killed at least 19 Palestinians -- including nine children. []
(And that’s on top of overnight strikes that killed at least 20 in southern Gaza).[]
But Israel claims that “Hamas terrorists” were hiding at the clinic so it was a valid target.
That should sound familiar because it’s a pattern we’ve seen in this war.
Hamas has long been accused of hiding their forces and facilities among civilian targets.
Israel uses this as justification for bombing these targets and leaving everyday people caught in the middle.
All that’s bad enough but things just get worse for many Gazans.
On top of renewed airstrikes, ground forces are also clearing out a massive chunk of land to expand a “security zone” between Gaza and Israel.
To be clear, they’ve been slowly making this zone bigger and bigger throughout the war and it’s on top of another corridor that Israel controls which effectively cuts Gaza in half.
Anyone living in the expanded “security zone” area is once again being forced from their homes.
For many Gazans -- especially in the North -- this is a bitter pill to swallow.
It’s only been a few months since they’ve been able to actually go back to their homes after being forced to flee south… and now they’re on the streets again.
Making this shitty situation even worse is that Israel has blocked aid shipments from entering Gaza since March 2nd.
That’s the longest aid drought since the war began.
Aid groups like the UN are also reducing their operations in Gaza because workers keep getting killed by Israeli strikes.
The news that Israel was expanding operations in Gaza was also met with pushback within Israel.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum -- which represents many of the hostages’ families -- said in a statement that they were “horrified” about the news that more operations were being carried out.
Generally speaking, many of the hostage families worry that continued fighting is a death sentence for their loved ones.
We’ll keep on eye on what’s going on here as we have been doing.
But in the meantime it’s really looking like this humanitarian disaster is just going to get worse.
The people there have less and less supplies, many are losing their homes forever, and if Gaza manages to be a thing after this war, it’ll have a lot less land.
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And for your daily dose of good news to preserve your sanity, 18 real-life Rosie the Riveter women were just honored for their work during World War II. []
Right, the Gary Sinise (Sin-ees) Foundation’s Soaring Valor program brought 18 women down to the World War Two Museum in New Orleans.
Because they are a handful of the 5 million women who embodied Rosie the Riveter - a famous painting by Norman Rockwell that was on the cover of the Saturday Evening Post in 1943.
Calling upon women to fill the vacant positions in the workforce while the men were overseas during the war.
So each of these Rosies received a personal tour of the museum - where they were given a hero’s welcome and they were even stopped several times by museum patrons for pictures. []
And as they walked through the museum, the women - most of whom either are or are approaching 100 years old - talked about their experiences during World War Two.
Like Jane Tucker, a 97 year old woman who left rural Alabama in 1947 with her mom and her sister to work in a shipyard as a welder.
Telling NPR,
"I worked in Savannah, Georgia building Liberty ships, and I learned to become a welder when I was just 16. It was all top secret. Loose lips will sink ships." []
Adding,
"The men said we couldn't do it. They said, 'Oh, they're too emotional, they're too petty. They'll be sick a lot. They won't come to work and they'll be too weak to do the heavy work.' So we said 'we can do it!'" []
Then there’s Erlina Avila - who was only 15 when she started working as a riveter on B-25 bombers, saying,
"From inside the wings, that's where I used to work. I was little enough I could crawl in the wings." []
She went on to say that she was motivated to serve after her brother was drafted and sent overseas.
But when she was turned away by an Army recruiter because of her sex, she went to work for the defense plant. []
Saying it was freeing and noting that many members of her Navajo (Nah-vah-ho) tribe weren’t even allowed to vote yet. []
And then there is Susan Taylor King - a 100 year old Black woman who was a riveter at an aircraft factory in Baltimore. []
Saying,
At the end of the tour, the Rosies were awarded with the Congressional Gold Medal - which is the highest honor that the US can give to a civilian.
With the Gary Sinise (Sin-ees) Foundation’s vice president saying,
"Oftentimes it's the soldiers who are really paid attention to, as they should, and these women are often forgotten. We're here to remind them that we do not forget them and that they really are truly critical and wonderful. And what they did was very, very appreciated." []
And the foundation’s work goes beyond just a celebration.
According to NPR, they’re also working to collect the oral history of these women for the archives in the museum. []
Meaning the spirit of Rosie the Riveter will live on.
So while it’s not quite as prestigious as a Congressional Gold Medal, these women will absolutely be our BAMFs of the day.
And we, too, appreciate everything they did for us back in the day - thank you.
